Will InBev sell Staropramen to Heineken?

We’ve seen this before. For years, pundits had scolded Heineken for not entering the Russian beer market in a big way. They said: “Everybody’s here, even Efes. But where’s Heineken?” Well, they just had to be patient. In the end, Heineken did a few deals in quick succession and rose to number three position with a market share of 13 percent (according to company figures).

Perhaps Heineken will be able to pull of this feat in the Czech Republic too.

About a year ago, Heineken took over the Czech Drinks Union brands, which pushed Heineken into third place on the Czech market with a market share of 12 percent, just ahead of the legendary Budweiser Budvar, but still lower than Heineken’s traditional market share.

As analysts and investors, these days, only like companies whose position in a market is first or second, you need not be a clairvoyant to predict that Heineken will try to aim higher.

By purchasing Staropramen — and thus the group’s other brands Braník, Měšťan, Ostravar, Kelt, Velvet and Vratislav — Heineken could move to a very comfortable second place behind SABMiller’s Pilsner Urquell group (49% market share), with around 30 percent of the Czech market. It would combine the above-mentioned Staropramen brands with its current Czech portfolio of Krušovice, Hostan, Starobrno, Zlatopramen, Velké Březno, Louny and Kutná Hora.

Interestingly, the exit of Anheuser-Busch InBev from the Czech market might finally put an end to the idea of Anheuser-Busch ever buying Czech Budweiser. However, Budweiser Budvar is still on schedule to be privatised eventually (whenever that might be). With its expanding presence here, Heineken would be a natural suitor. Moreover, it would not receive the same kind of vitriolic hostility as the Americans.