2009 global brewers’ ranking: Carlsberg distant fourth
In its report “Global Economic Prospects 2010”, which the World Bank released on 21 January 2010, the authors warn that while the worst of the financial crisis may be over, the global recovery is fragile.
Global GDP, which declined by 2.2 percent in 2009, is expected to grow 2.7 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2011, says the World Bank.
Prospects for developing countries are for a relatively robust recovery, growing 5.2 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2011 – up from 1.2 percent in 2009.
GDP in rich countries, which declined by 3.3 percent in 2009, is expected to increase much less quickly – by 1.8 and 2.3 percent in 2010 and 2011. World trade volumes, which fell by a staggering 14.4 percent in 2009, are projected to expand by 4.3 and 6.2 percent this year and in 2011.
“While this is the most likely scenario, considerable uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook. Depending on consumer and business confidence in the next few quarters and the timing of fiscal and monetary stimulus withdrawal, growth in 2011 could be as low as 2.5 percent and as high as 3.4 percent”, cautions the World Bank.
As concerns global beer consumption, Plato Logic predicts a somewhat similar scenario. For 2010, Plato Logic’s current ‘control scenario’ assumes that the world beer market will pick up again, with growth forecast to reach 3 percent or more, thanks to output going up in some emerging markets.
Plato Logic’s new Top 10 World Brewers league table, based pro forma 2009 volumes, shows that AB-InBev defended the number 1 spot, ahead of SABMiller, Heineken and Carlsberg. The new Big 4 have established a clear lead, with combined market share estimated at just over 50 percent.
