Slump in tourism will hit beer consumption in 2016

If you want a beach to yourself, go to Turkey. Where last year millions roasted like hot dogs, you will find empty deck chairs this year. Turkey’s spat with Russia is partly to blame for the drop in tourists.

After Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane, Mr Putin cancelled charter flights to Turkey last year (resumed in July), which means that only a tiny fraction of the 4.5 million Russians who holidayed at the Mediterranean in 2015, will come this year.

Tourist numbers from Germany were also down massively in the first half of 2016, not least over fears of terrorist attacks. All in all, the number of tourists could drop to perhaps 20 million in 2016, from 37 million in 2014.

Tourism is an important industry, contributing about 8 percent to Turkey’s GDP and 8 percent of jobs, it was reported.

The crisis in tourism has already affected Anadolu Efes, the country’s major beer producer and Coca-Cola bottler. Its beer market share is 69 percent. In the first half of 2016 (ended June) Efes’ beer sales in Turkey were down 13.7 percent to 2.9 million hl over the same period last year. Turnover dropped 9.6 percent and profits (EBIT) 42.1 percent. Even if Turkey’s forecasted beer volume sales for the full year only decline by 5 percent, Efes’ sales drop is expected to be higher: between 5 and 9 percent.

Hopefully things will improve again next year or Efes will struggle to improve efficiencies at its four breweries, which have a combined capacity of 9.5 million hl.