US off-premise beer sales up 16 percent in March

USA | In the four weeks to 21 March 2020, beer sales soared 16.2 percent per Nielsen data on retail channels. The 12-week sales growth for the category was 8.6 percent.

In the off-premise covered by Nielsen, AB-InBev saw dollar sales grow 10.9 percent, Molson Coors 10.1 percent, Constellation Brands 18.0 percent, Heineken 4.3 percent, Boston Beer 52.2 percent, and Craft Brew Alliance 10.5 percent.

Although consumers have been stockpiling on beer, the hike in off-premise sales won’t be enough to compensate brewers for the losses in on-premise beer sales.

Significant on-premise beer sales

In the US, the on-premise contributes significantly to brewers’ revenues. In 2018, on-premise beer sales were estimated at around USD 50 billion or 44 percent of total beer sales, compared with off-premise beer sales at USD 64 billion, according to Statista. In volume terms, the on-premise represents only 20 percent of industry sales.

Not so for craft brewers. They will suffer most as, per brewbound.com, 40 percent of their beer output flows through the on-premise. What is more, craft brewers sold 3.6 million barrels (4.2 million hl) of beer directly to consumers at their taprooms and tasting rooms in 2019. That is about 13 percent of total craft beer volume sales.

Media say that 85 percent to 95 percent of bars and, excluding fast food restaurants, over 80 percent of sit-down restaurants have been closed because of the covid-19 crisis. Tasting rooms and taprooms are shuttered too.

Despite the aid offered by the Cares Act, Laurent Grandet, an analyst at investment bank Guggenheim, estimates that 20 percent of bars and restaurants won’t reopen. Accordingly, rating agency Moody’s has revised its 2020 forecast for restaurant industry sales from a 2 percent to 4 percent growth to a 10 percent decline.