Seeing is believing: beer consumption forecasts

Although beer consumption has been affected by the global economic crisis, at a global level growth is still relatively robust. Canadean predicts an average growth rate of 2.8 percent between 2009 and 2015.

In Asia, beer consumption should grow by 5 percent (Compound Annual Growth Rate) between 2009 and 2015.

The strong performance of the Asian beer market means that the region is expected to account for 38 percent of total beer consumption by 2015. The Asian market is of course dominated by China, and Canadean predicts that in 2015 China alone will account for over a quarter of all beer consumption worldwide.

The Chinese beer market is forecast to reach 573 million hl by the end of the forecast period, over twice the size of the USA, the second largest beer market in the world.

The African beer market is also predicted to grow by 5 percent (CAGR) with Latin America expected to deliver a CAGR of just over 3 percent and the Middle East a CAGR of 5.5 percent over the same period.

In contrast, the eastern European market is projected to grow by only 1.5 percent (CAGR), whilst beer consumption in North America is forecast to deliver a CAGR of just 0.5 percent and Western Europe is expected to register a marginal decline.

Growth in eastern Europe, we think, depends wholly on Russia and the Ukraine performing positively again. At 85 litres per capita, the Polish market, which is Europe’s fifth largest, seems to have reached maturity as has the Romanian at 93 litres per capita (2009).

The Russian beer market was hit harder than most by the economic crisis, the fall in consumer confidence caused by the global economic downturn being exacerbated by a tripling of the beer excise duty. This market was one of the star performers before the crisis, with a CAGR of over 11 percent between 1999 and 2008. However, 2009 saw a fall of nearly 4 percent, which was compounded by a further fall of 7 percent in 2010.

Ever the optimist, Canadean predicts that the Russian beer market will return to growth, but not at anything like the pre-crisis levels.

For the period 2011 to 2015, assuming no further rise in excise duty, or legislative restrictions on beer sales, Canadean forecasts a CAGR of slightly under 4 percent.

Unlike Canadean, we do not think that the decline in western Europe’s beer consumption will be marginal only. If Germany’s beer output continues its downward trend at 2 percent annually – and Germany’s brewers certainly think it will – that translates into an annual loss of over 2 million hl beer. To us it seems unlikely that any consumption increase in Spain, which has been western Europe’s major growth market in recent years and whose per capita consumption already stands at 85 litres, will be able to compensate Germany’s loss alone.

BRAUWELT International’s forecast for western Europe therefore points to a much steeper decline.

As concerns the world’s top four brewers, (AB-InBev, SABMiller,

Heineken and Carlsberg) they now account for a combined share of 42 percent of all beer sold worldwide.

Global beer consumption forecast

by region 2009-2015

*Compound Annual Growth Rate

Source: Canadean