Harry Schuhmacher: Bud Light’s decline may become the “new normal”
USA | The industry personality and publisher of Beer Business Daily, Harry Schuhmacher, fears the damage to Bud Light could be “quasi-permanent” and longtime consumers could be “lost forever”, after the brand has failed to rebound from a boycott.
“The Bud Light situation has actually gotten worse,” Beer Business Daily publisher Harry Schuhmacher told Fox News Digital on 8 September.
Volume sales of Bud Light have declined since May by around 30 percent each month compared to last year. “That tells me that this is quasi-permanent,” he said.
Mr Schuhmacher, whose publication is required reading for beer distributors, has been covering the Bud Light saga since the company’s now-infamous promo with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney in April.
Decline of Bud Light could go on until 2024
Mr Schuhmacher predicted that Bud Light is likely to see similar year-over-year declines for the “foreseeable future”, or “at least until April and May of 2024 when they lap the controversy” and the new normal will be baked into the numbers.
“The industry thought [Bud Light] would have rebounded by now, but it hasn't,” he said. “It's actually worse than just lost sales because now it's getting to the point where it's becoming systemic, and they're losing the confidence of the retailers and that's when it starts getting bad.”
Since July, shoppers at Costco’s have noticed an asterisk on the price tag for Bud Light across the beverage aisle. Experienced shoppers have seen the sign before and call it the “death star”. It is often associated with items that are being discontinued. It could be an indication that one of the largest US retailers may be considering not restocking the troubled beer brand.
Retailers could lose interest in pushing Bud Light
Mr Schuhmacher explained that once retailers lose confidence in a product, it loses valuable shelf space and even more valuable display space.
“You see those end caps at the end of aisles at the grocery store? When you start losing those, it's bad because you not only lose store visibility, but you also lose being able to load a lot of inventory into the store,” he said. “Displays are a big tool for the beer industry to move beer, and that could be concerning to Anheuser-Busch.”
At this point, Schuhmacher said the summer of 2024 is going to be “a big test” for the long-term success of Bud Light and the brand needs to hope it regains the confidence of retailers in the meantime.
Losing its touch
Elsewhere, Mr Schuhmacher lambasted Anheuser-Busch’s other marketing misstep. Even before the partnership with the transgender activist, the brewer participated in the prestigious art fair, Art Basel Miami Beach, in December 2022 to promote Michelob Ultra. Mr Schuhmacher cited this as an example of the firm losing touch. He said: “It doesn't have to be NFL Football, I get it. But not Art Basel in Miami.”
Retrospectively, Mr Schumacher pinpointed the moment that Anheuser-Busch began its decline to 2008 after it was bought by InBev. While Anheuser-Busch's old leadership saw Bud Light roll out hilarious adverts and focus on fan-friendly sports marketing, new executives have since reversed course.
Distributors are suffering too
Mr Schumacher pointed out that “so many people depend on Bud Light for their income. I feel bad for Bud Light, and I feel bad for the employees and distributors who have to go out in the market and deal with this b*******.”
“[Distributors are] somewhat powerless to fix it, except to remain really active in their local communities, which they've done and which they've always done. And really, the only saving grace for that brand is those local connections that the wholesalers have. But it's been a rough summer for those guys, you know, shout out to them, and it's probably going to be a rough winter,” Mr Schuhmacher said.
Other Anheuser-Busch brands have recovered
Mr Schuhmacher noticed that other Anheuser-Busch brands have started to revert to pre-controversy levels. “While Bud Light continues to struggle, Anheuser-Busch’s other brands have rebounded a little bit. And so, we’re not seeing those deep cuts in Busch, Busch Light, Michelob Ultra, Natural, those have come back. That’s a little bit of good news for that company that you can point to there.”
