When will pubs reopen in the UK?

United Kingdom | Pubs could be shut for months to come, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a third national shutdown on 6 January 2021.

Mr Johnson did not offer a concrete end date, instead saying that the prospect of Britain’s mass vaccination programme could enable restrictions to be progressively eased from mid-February.

However, several officials currently view 23 March as a more realistic point at which restrictions can be lifted. Other sources say that Britons may have to wait even longer – perhaps as late as 3 May, the May Day bank holiday – to see pubs reopening.

Having looked at the numbers, some analysts say that keeping strict restrictions in place when the 50+ population is vaccinated will be an impossible task.

Data crunching

The UK has 66 million inhabitants. Of these, 24.7 million are aged 50+. Overall, 82 percent of people said they want to be vaccinated. This rises to 96 percent amongst the 75+. If we assume a 90 percent vaccine take-up, the UK will need to vaccinate 18 million to 22.3 million people.

Currently, the UK has seen 370,000 vaccinations per day. If there are no hick-ups or shortages, perhaps the UK could get to 500,000 jabs per day. That would mean 36 to 44 days before everyone over the age of 50 has had one vaccination and another month before a second vaccination has been given.

That said, if all goes well, the UK could arrive at a vaccinated stage by mid-April. This is also when the weather becomes better.

Maybe the Prime Minister could lift restrictions by Easter (4 April), just to boost morale?

This does not mean that the virus will then no longer be around, but having got the older part of the population vaccinated could provide some relief for the hard hit leisure industry and a population fed up with lockdown.