Brazilian and Belgian shareholders want out

Usually, shareholders’ agreements are among the best kept secrets. That such a significant detail of AB-InBev’s agreement was leaked to the press can mean only one thing: someone bore a grudge and that’s usually the losers.

In early July, AB-InBev’s PR was forced to confirm media reports that since November last year the Belgian and Brazilian investors have been required to only hold a minimum 15 percent stake each. That does not imply that they are intending to relinquish control of the brewer. Not yet, in any case.

For the time being, the majority shareholders have committed themselves to retaining control of the company. Under Belgian law, this is ensured with a 30 percent stake.

If the majority shareholders were to lower their stake all at once, they would have to sell stock worth EUR 6.7 billion at the current share price, pundits have worked out on the back of an envelope.

However, this is unlikely to happen as it would endanger AB-InBev’s share price which is still facing an uphill struggle to reach the pre-Anheuser-Busch takeover level of EUR 49 as of July 2008.

People familiar with the situation expect a lot of “internal” deals, whereby shares will be sold to other “friendly” shareholders in big packets.

Making an educated guess, I reckon that the Belgian majority shareholders will be the first who want out and that quite a few of their shares will be bought up by the Brazilians.

Although, come to think of it, in June the Brazilians sold shares worth more than EUR 250 million.

So perhaps we will be witnessing a discrete fire sale?